Predicting the Stars in 2026
- Chuck Bueter
- 11 minutes ago
- 2 min read
Astronomy is in the business of making predictions. Not the predictions of astrology and horoscopes, but the insights of science. In a simple form, we watch the sun rise and set, so we anticipate it following that tradition on ensuing days. Yet some cultures conceived that around the winter solstice the sun might not come back with its life-sustaining presence. All it takes is one non-occurrence for a scientific theory to be thrown into the tumult of uncertainty.
As we launch into the 2026 orbit around the sun, I link to two ways you can follow the patterns of the past to predict events in the future. Simple but true; something from my past and something from my present.
January 1 at Midnight
In the first, begin with the position of the circumpolar stars on January 1 at midnight. From there, you can predict where the major northern constellations will be relative to Polaris throughout the year for any date at any time. Try the Platisphere activity. Make a dial with some paper plates to discern the repeating stellar pattern from the combined motions of earth's rotation and revolution.
Sometime 8 Decades After 1946
For a second immersion into the predictive realm of astronomy, witness a phenomenon likely not seen by anyone now alive. Astronomers suggest a faint star has exploded with regularity every 80 years, appearing as a "new" naked eye star--a recurring nova. The star T Coronae Borealis (T CrB) last blew in 1946. What do you predict will happen in 2026?
Sometimes predictions don't happen as anticipated and ideas need to be modified. Just before T CrB erupted in 1946, its brightness dipped significantly. So in 2024 when observers recorded a similar big drop, a natural expectation was that the star would erupt soon thereafter. When the announcement went out in 2024, I started imaging the host constellation with my cell phone camera. Alas, no kaboom. I'm still imaging it every clear night, for I believe the 8-decade span, give or take, is evidence based and credible.
As of January 1, 2026, I've gone out 338 clear-enough nights since that 2024 pre-eruption dip. I want to see a naked eye nova--this is something genuinely attainable that you can do--and I hope to use the predictive power of astronomy to make it happen. See Nova in Corona Borealis for guidance.
New Year's Day yields many predictions for the future in popular media. Science gives me both reason to believe and cause to observe. I wish you well in 2026 as we wait to see if our astronomical predictions--the turning of the stellar vault and the emergence of a singular new pinpoint of light--indeed come true.
